Climate Insights

Emissions Trend Analysis

6 pilot countries · 2000-2023 · CO2 per capita (metric tons CO2eq)

Sources: Climate TRACE, WDI, Ember·Confidence: HIGH (3-source cross-validation)

CO2 per Capita Trajectories

Compound Annual Growth Rate (2000-2023)

23-year CAGR of CO2 per capita emissions

Country20002023CAGR (%)Total Change (%)
Bangladesh0.200.69+5.55+246.1
South Korea9.9211.42+0.61+15.1
Brazil2.012.27+0.54+13.3
Nigeria0.790.55-1.56-30.3
Germany10.607.08-1.74-33.2
United States21.0113.71-1.84-34.7

Paris Agreement Impact (Pre vs Post 2015)

Acceleration = post-Paris CAGR minus pre-Paris CAGR. Negative = faster reduction.

CountryPre-Paris CAGR (%)Post-Paris CAGR (%)Acceleration (pp)
South Korea+1.621-1.245-2.849
United States-1.744-1.872-0.061
Germany-0.693-3.746-3.005
Brazil+2.221-1.507-3.659
Nigeria-1.299-1.459-0.436
Bangladesh+6.517+3.279-3.164

GDP-Emissions Decoupling (2015-2023)

Decoupling score = GDP growth rate minus CO2 growth rate. Higher = better separation.

United States

+6.35

#1 · Strong decoupling

Bangladesh

+6.08

#2 · Strong decoupling

Germany

+4.78

#3 · Strong decoupling

South Korea

+2.73

#4 · Moderate decoupling

Brazil

+1.22

#5 · Moderate decoupling

Nigeria

+0.08

#6 · Moderate decoupling

Energy Transition Speed

Renewable energy share change over 5 years (percentage points)

Germany

Current: 54.41%

+19.2 pp

Brazil

Current: 89%

+6.6 pp

United States

Current: 22.68%

+5.2 pp

South Korea

Current: 9.57%

+4.9 pp

Nigeria

Current: 22.89%

+1.7 pp

Bangladesh

Current: 1.62%

-0.1 pp

Methodology

CAGR

(V_end / V_start)^(1/n) - 1

Decoupling Score

GDP_growth% - CO2_growth%

Energy Transition Index

5-year change in renewable share (pp)

Carbon Intensity

CO2 per capita / GDP per capita