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Brazil

Medium Risk

South America · Upper middle income · Pop. 213,421,037

ND-GAIN Vulnerability: 0.368 (2022)

CO2 per capita

2.27t CO2e

Source: World Bank WDI (2023)

GDP

$2.21T($10.4k/capita)

Source: World Bank (2023)

Renewable electricity

88.9%

↑ +6.6pp (5yr)

Source: Ember (2023)

Vulnerability

0.368ND-GAIN index

Source: ND-GAIN (2022)

Emissions Trajectory

Brazil — CO₂ per capita (2000–2023)

Production-based
00.71.42.12.83.5200020042008201220162020t CO₂e/capitaParis2.3t

Source: World Bank WDI · EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5

World Bank vs Climate TRACE (indexed)

WB CO₂/capitaClimate TRACE GHG
90120150201520162017201820192020202120222023Index (2015=100)

Source: World Bank WDI + Climate TRACE (indexed, 2015=100)

Brazil's emissions grew at +2.22%/yr pre-Paris (2000–2014), then -1.51%/yr post-Paris (2015–2023) — a -3.66pp shift. This ranks 1st largest deceleration among tracked countries. Per capita emissions reached 2.3 t in 2023 (+13.3% vs 2000).

Pre-Paris vs Post-Paris CAGR

Pre-Paris vs Post-Paris Emissions GrowthCO₂ per capita CAGR (%) — 20 countriesPre-Paris (2000–2014)Post-Paris (2015–2023)-4%-3%-2%-1%+1%+2%+3%+4%+5%+6%+7%0%South Korea +1.62%-1.25% KORUnited States -1.74%-1.87% USAGermany -1.48%-2.41% DEUBrazil +2.08%+0.85% BRA-1.23ppNigeria +3.92%+2.15% NGABangladesh +6.52%+3.28% BGDDeceleration (post < pre)Acceleration (post > pre)Faded = non-pilotvisualclimate.org

Source: World Bank WDI · EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5

Energy Transition

Electricity Generation Mix (2023)

Brazil — Energy Flow 2023Electricity generation mix · carbon outputINPUTGRIDOUTPUT9%89%Fossil9.0%Renewable88.9%Nuclear2.0%ElectricityCO2 Output9.0%Clean Output91.0%Source: Ember Global Electricity Review 2023 | visualclimate.org
Donut view
89%9%Renewable89%
  • Renewable88.9%
  • Fossil9.0%
  • Nuclear & Other2.0%

Source: Ember Global Electricity Review (2023)

Transition Progress

Renewable Share

88.9%

↑ +6.6pp over 5 years

Fossil Fuel Share

9.0%

Nuclear & Other

2.0%

Brazil's renewable share (88.9%) ranks 2nd in the group, adding +6.6pp over 5 years. The group leader (Germany) reached 54.4% renewable.

Economic Decoupling

GDP vs CO₂ Growth

GDP per capitaCO₂ per capita
Decoupling Score: +12.01
80160240320400200020042008201220162020Index (2000=100)276113

Source: World Bank WDI (GDP + CO₂ per capita), indexed to 2000=100

Brazil shows moderate decoupling. GDP grew faster than emissions by +1.22pp/yr since 2015 (5th among tracked countries). The divergence between green (GDP) and red (CO₂) lines shows economic growth is increasingly less carbon-intensive.

Climate Vulnerability

Vulnerability vs Readiness (Pilot Countries, 2023)

0.2710.4480.6250.2220.5010.78Vulnerability →Readiness →South KoreaUnited StatesGermanyBrazilNigeriaBangladesh

Source: ND-GAIN Country Index (2023). Lower-left = ideal (low vulnerability, high readiness)

Brazil ranks 4th in climate readiness (score: 0.350) among pilot countries. Vulnerability stands at 0.369 — in the medium range, indicating moderate climate exposure. Fossil fuel dependency (9.0%) remains a key driver.

Key Vulnerabilities

  • ▸산림 벌채 지속 (삼림 면적 59.7% → 58.98%, LULUCF 배출 증가)
  • ▸수자원 스트레스 및 극단적 가뭄 위험 (아마존 유역 강수 패턴 변화)
  • ▸농업 생산성 위협 (세라도 지역 기온 상승 및 건조화)
  • ▸기후 적응 준비도 중간 수준 (ND-GAIN 준비도 0.35)

Strengths

  • ▸세계 최고 수준의 재생에너지 전력 믹스 (88.99%, 주로 수력)
  • ▸탄소 집약도 대폭 개선 (전력 그리드 96.3 gCO2/kWh, 세계 최저 수준)
  • ▸1인당 CO2 배출량 안정적 유지 (2.27 mt, 소폭 감소)
Assessment (medium risk): 브라질은 세계 최대 열대우림인 아마존을 보유한 국가로, 기후변화 완화와 적응 양면에서 중요한 위치를 차지합니다. 전력 생산의 88.99%가 재생에너지(주로 수력발전)에서 공급되며, 전력 탄소 집약도(96.3 gCO2/kWh)는 세계 최저 수준으로 에너지 전환 분야의 강점을 보입니다. 그러나 산림 벌채가 지속되면서 삼림 면적이 2018년 59.7%에서 2023년 58.98%로 감소하였고, 이는 생태계 서비스 손실과 탄소 흡수원 약화로 이어집니다. ND-GAIN 취약성 지수 0.37은 중간 수준으로, 기후 리스크가 완전히 낮지는 않습니다. 수자원 스트레스와 아마존 지역의 강수 패턴 변화는 농업과 수력발전 모두에 위협입니다. GDP 대비 탄소 집약도는 꾸준히 개선(0.246 → 0.219)되고 있으며, 탈동조화(decoupling) 지수도 양수로 전환되어 경제성장과 탄소 배출 분리가 진행 중입니다.

Data Sources

Emissions (5)
IndicatorSourceYears
Carbon intensity of GDPDerived: EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5 / NY.GDP.PCAP.CD * 10002000–2023
Emissions intensityderived2000–2023
CO2 per capitaWorld Bank WDI2000–2023
Decoupling indexDerived: GDP growth% - CO2 growth%2001–2023
Total GHG (absolute)Climate TRACE2015–2023
Energy (5)
IndicatorSourceYears
Fossil electricity %Ember/OWID2000–2023
Carbon intensityEmber/OWID2000–2022
Renewable electricity %Ember/OWID2000–2023
Energy use per capitaWorld Bank WDI2000–2023
Energy transition momentumDerived: EMBER.RENEWABLE.PCT(t) - EMBER.RENEWABLE.PCT(t-5)2005–2022
Economy (1)
IndicatorSourceYears
GDP per capitaWorld Bank WDI2000–2023
Climate Risk (4)
IndicatorSourceYears
ND-GAIN VulnerabilityND-GAIN2000–2022
Forest areaWorld Bank WDI2000–2022
PM2.5 air pollutionWorld Bank WDI2000–2020
ND-GAIN ReadinessND-GAIN2000–2023
Derived (29)
IndicatorSourceYears
OWID.OIL_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.NITROUS_OXIDEOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CEMENT_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.SHARE_GLOBAL_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.ENERGY_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.NITROUS_OXIDE_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.ENERGY_PER_GDPOWID CO22000–2022
SP.POP.TOTLWorld Bank WDI2000–2023
OWID.CONSUMPTION_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.GHG_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.GAS_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_N2OOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.METHANE_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2022
OWID.CONSUMPTION_CO2_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.FLARING_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TOTAL_GHGOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2_PER_GDPOWID CO22000–2022
OWID.METHANEOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_CO2OWID CO22000–2022
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_CH4OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2_INCLUDING_LUCOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CUMULATIVE_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_GHGOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TOTAL_GHG_EXCLUDING_LUCFOWID CO22000–2022
OWID.SHARE_GLOBAL_CUMULATIVE_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.COAL_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
DERIVED.CLIMATE_CLASSVisualClimate derived2023–2023
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