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Nigeria

High Risk

Western Africa · Lower middle income · Pop. 223,800,000

ND-GAIN Vulnerability: 0.482 (2022)

CO2 per capita

0.55t CO2e

Source: World Bank WDI (2023)

GDP

$479B($2.1k/capita)

Source: World Bank (2023)

Renewable electricity

22.9%

↑ +1.7pp (5yr)

Source: Ember (2023)

Vulnerability

0.482ND-GAIN index

Source: ND-GAIN (2022)

Emissions Trajectory

Nigeria — CO₂ per capita (2000–2023)

Production-based
00.20.40.60.81200020042008201220162020t CO₂e/capitaParis0.6t

Source: World Bank WDI · EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5

World Bank vs Climate TRACE (indexed)

WB CO₂/capitaClimate TRACE GHG
90120150201520162017201820192020202120222023Index (2015=100)

Source: World Bank WDI + Climate TRACE (indexed, 2015=100)

Nigeria's emissions grew at -1.30%/yr pre-Paris (2000–2014), then -1.46%/yr post-Paris (2015–2023) — a -0.44pp shift. This ranks 5th largest deceleration among tracked countries. Per capita emissions reached 0.6 t in 2023 (-30.3% vs 2000).

Pre-Paris vs Post-Paris CAGR

Pre-Paris vs Post-Paris Emissions GrowthCO₂ per capita CAGR (%) — 20 countriesPre-Paris (2000–2014)Post-Paris (2015–2023)-4%-3%-2%-1%+1%+2%+3%+4%+5%+6%+7%0%South Korea +1.62%-1.25% KORUnited States -1.74%-1.87% USAGermany -1.48%-2.41% DEUBrazil +2.08%+0.85% BRANigeria +3.92%+2.15% NGA-1.77ppBangladesh +6.52%+3.28% BGDDeceleration (post < pre)Acceleration (post > pre)Faded = non-pilotvisualclimate.org

Source: World Bank WDI · EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5

Energy Transition

Electricity Generation Mix (2023)

Nigeria — Energy Flow 2023Electricity generation mix · carbon outputINPUTGRIDOUTPUT77%23%Fossil77.1%Renewable22.9%ElectricityCO2 Output77.1%Clean Output22.9%Source: Ember Global Electricity Review 2023 | visualclimate.org
Donut view
23%77%Fossil77%
  • Renewable22.9%
  • Fossil77.1%
  • Nuclear & Other0.0%

Source: Ember Global Electricity Review (2023)

Transition Progress

Renewable Share

22.9%

↑ +1.7pp over 5 years

Fossil Fuel Share

77.1%

Nuclear & Other

0.0%

Nigeria's renewable share (22.9%) ranks 5th in the group, adding +1.7pp over 5 years. The group leader (Germany) reached 54.4% renewable.

Economic Decoupling

GDP vs CO₂ Growth

GDP per capitaCO₂ per capita
Decoupling Score: +-21.74
2004006008001000200020042008201220162020Index (2000=100)39170

Source: World Bank WDI (GDP + CO₂ per capita), indexed to 2000=100

Nigeria shows moderate decoupling. GDP grew faster than emissions by +0.08pp/yr since 2015 (6th among tracked countries). The divergence between green (GDP) and red (CO₂) lines shows economic growth is increasingly less carbon-intensive.

Climate Vulnerability

Vulnerability vs Readiness (Pilot Countries, 2023)

0.2710.4480.6250.2220.5010.78Vulnerability →Readiness →South KoreaUnited StatesGermanyBrazilNigeriaBangladesh

Source: ND-GAIN Country Index (2023). Lower-left = ideal (low vulnerability, high readiness)

Nigeria ranks 6th in climate readiness (score: 0.253) among pilot countries. Vulnerability stands at 0.481 — in the higher range, reflecting significant climate exposure. Fossil fuel dependency (77.1%) remains a key driver.

Key Vulnerabilities

  • ▸높은 기후 취약성 (ND-GAIN 취약성 0.48, 사헬 지역 사막화·홍수 이중 위험)
  • ▸대기오염 극심 (PM2.5 56.5 µg/m³, WHO 기준 11배 초과)
  • ▸낮은 기후 적응 준비도 (ND-GAIN 준비도 0.25, 방글라데시보다 낮음)
  • ▸석유 의존 경제 구조의 탈탄소화 전환 리스크
  • ▸삼림 벌채 지속 (24.1% → 23.2%, 0.9%p 감소)

Strengths

  • ▸재생에너지(수력) 비중 22.9%로 상대적으로 높은 편
  • ▸1인당 CO2 배출량 매우 낮음 (0.55 mt, 6개국 중 최저)
  • ▸GDP 대비 탄소 집약도 개선 (0.288 → 0.258)
Assessment (high risk): 나이지리아는 아프리카 최대 경제국으로, 석유 자원 의존도와 높은 기후 취약성이 동시에 존재하는 복잡한 상황에 처해 있습니다. ND-GAIN 취약성 지수 0.48은 방글라데시 다음으로 높으며, 사헬 지역의 사막화와 남부 삼각주 지역의 홍수가 동시에 위협하는 이중 리스크 구조를 가지고 있습니다. 대기오염(PM2.5 56.5 µg/m³)은 WHO 기준의 11배를 초과하며, 도시화 및 발전소 연료 연소가 주요 원인입니다. 기후 적응 준비도(0.25)는 6개국 중 최하위로, 제도적·재정적 대응 역량이 매우 부족합니다. 1인당 탄소 배출량(0.55 mt)은 낮지만 이는 에너지 빈곤의 반영이며, 개발 필요와 기후 목표의 균형이 핵심 과제입니다. 탈동조화 지수가 음수(−21.7)로 나타나 최근 경제 충격과 에너지 불안정이 지표를 왜곡하고 있습니다. 에너지 접근성 확대와 재생에너지 전환을 동시에 추진하는 정의로운 전환 전략이 필요합니다.

Data Sources

Emissions (5)
IndicatorSourceYears
Carbon intensity of GDPDerived: EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5 / NY.GDP.PCAP.CD * 10002000–2023
Emissions intensityderived2000–2023
CO2 per capitaWorld Bank WDI2000–2023
Decoupling indexDerived: GDP growth% - CO2 growth%2001–2023
Total GHG (absolute)Climate TRACE2015–2023
Energy (5)
IndicatorSourceYears
Fossil electricity %Ember/OWID2000–2023
Carbon intensityEmber/OWID2000–2022
Renewable electricity %Ember/OWID2000–2023
Energy use per capitaWorld Bank WDI2000–2022
Energy transition momentumDerived: EMBER.RENEWABLE.PCT(t) - EMBER.RENEWABLE.PCT(t-5)2005–2022
Economy (1)
IndicatorSourceYears
GDP per capitaWorld Bank WDI2000–2023
Climate Risk (4)
IndicatorSourceYears
ND-GAIN VulnerabilityND-GAIN2000–2022
Forest areaWorld Bank WDI2000–2022
PM2.5 air pollutionWorld Bank WDI2000–2020
ND-GAIN ReadinessND-GAIN2000–2023
Derived (29)
IndicatorSourceYears
OWID.OIL_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.NITROUS_OXIDEOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CEMENT_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.SHARE_GLOBAL_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.ENERGY_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.NITROUS_OXIDE_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.ENERGY_PER_GDPOWID CO22000–2022
SP.POP.TOTLWorld Bank WDI2000–2023
OWID.CONSUMPTION_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.GHG_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.GAS_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_N2OOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.METHANE_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2022
OWID.CONSUMPTION_CO2_PER_CAPITAOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.FLARING_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TOTAL_GHGOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2_PER_GDPOWID CO22000–2022
OWID.METHANEOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_CO2OWID CO22000–2022
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_CH4OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CO2_INCLUDING_LUCOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.CUMULATIVE_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TEMPERATURE_CHANGE_FROM_GHGOWID CO22000–2023
OWID.TOTAL_GHG_EXCLUDING_LUCFOWID CO22000–2022
OWID.SHARE_GLOBAL_CUMULATIVE_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
OWID.COAL_CO2OWID CO22000–2023
DERIVED.CLIMATE_CLASSVisualClimate derived2023–2023
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