Climate Insights

Climate Vulnerability Comparison

6 pilot countries · ND-GAIN Index · Risk profiles

Source: ND-GAIN, Climate TRACE, Ember, WDI·Assessment date: Feb 2026

Vulnerability vs Readiness

X-axis: ND-GAIN Readiness (higher = more prepared). Y-axis: ND-GAIN Vulnerability (higher = more vulnerable).

Bangladesh

HIGH

Most vulnerable among pilot countries (ND-GAIN 0.568). Sea-level rise, cyclones, and floods threaten coastal populations. Energy mix dominated by fossil fuels (98.4%).

Vulnerability

0.568

↓ worsening

Readiness

0.279

↑ improving

CO2/capita

0.69 mt

Renewable %

1.6%

PM2.5

42.4 ug/m3

Forest Cover

14.5%

Key Vulnerabilities

  • •Extreme flood & sea-level rise risk (coastal lowland population exposure)
  • •Energy transition stalled (fossil fuel 98.4%, renewable 1.6%)
  • •Severe air pollution (PM2.5 42.4 ug/m3, 8x WHO guideline)

Strengths

  • •Carbon intensity improving (0.327 to 0.272 kg CO2/USD)
  • •Sustained GDP growth (+30% per capita)

Nigeria

HIGH

High vulnerability (0.48) with lowest readiness (0.25). Dual risk from Sahel desertification and coastal flooding. Low emissions reflect energy poverty, not clean energy.

Vulnerability

0.481

→ stable

Readiness

0.253

↑ improving

CO2/capita

0.55 mt

Renewable %

22.9%

PM2.5

56.5 ug/m3

Forest Cover

23.2%

Key Vulnerabilities

  • •Dual climate risk: Sahel desertification + southern delta flooding
  • •Worst air quality (PM2.5 56.5 ug/m3, 11x WHO guideline)
  • •Lowest adaptation readiness (ND-GAIN 0.25)

Strengths

  • •Lowest per-capita CO2 (0.55 mt)
  • •Hydropower base (22.9% renewable)

Brazil

MEDIUM

Moderate vulnerability (0.37). World-leading renewables (89%) but ongoing Amazon deforestation undermines carbon sinks.

Vulnerability

0.368

→ stable

Readiness

0.350

↑ improving

CO2/capita

2.27 mt

Renewable %

89.0%

PM2.5

12.2 ug/m3

Forest Cover

59.0%

Key Vulnerabilities

  • •Ongoing deforestation (forest cover 59.7% to 59.0%)
  • •Amazon drought & rainfall pattern shifts
  • •Agricultural productivity threatened by warming

Strengths

  • •World-leading renewable electricity (89%, mainly hydro)
  • •Lowest grid carbon intensity (96.3 gCO2/kWh)

United States

MEDIUM

Moderate vulnerability (0.31) with high adaptation capacity. Largest historical emitter with declining per-capita emissions.

Vulnerability

0.312

→ stable

Readiness

0.647

↓ worsening

CO2/capita

13.71 mt

Renewable %

22.7%

PM2.5

7.8 ug/m3

Forest Cover

33.9%

Key Vulnerabilities

  • •Highest per-capita emissions (13.7 mt CO2, top among 6 countries)
  • •Wildfires, hurricanes, floods: diverse acute risks
  • •Readiness declining (0.666 to 0.647, policy instability)

Strengths

  • •Strong carbon intensity improvement (-32% since 2018)
  • •IRA-driven renewable growth (17.4% to 22.7%)

Germany

MEDIUM

Low vulnerability (0.30) with strong Energiewende results. 54% renewable electricity, lowest carbon intensity among pilot countries.

Vulnerability

0.301

→ stable

Readiness

0.682

↓ worsening

CO2/capita

7.08 mt

Renewable %

54.4%

PM2.5

10.3 ug/m3

Forest Cover

32.7%

Key Vulnerabilities

  • •Industrial decarbonization challenge (steel, chemicals, auto)
  • •Increasing heatwave & drought frequency
  • •Post-nuclear transition risk to grid stability

Strengths

  • •Renewable electricity at 54.4% (Energiewende)
  • •Lowest carbon intensity (0.129 kg CO2/USD)
  • •Second-highest adaptation readiness (0.68)

South Korea

MEDIUM

Highest readiness (0.72) but lagging in energy transition. Only 9.6% renewable electricity, highest carbon intensity per GDP.

Vulnerability

0.357

↑ improving

Readiness

0.722

↑ improving

CO2/capita

11.42 mt

Renewable %

9.6%

PM2.5

25.9 ug/m3

Forest Cover

64.1%

Key Vulnerabilities

  • •High fossil fuel dependency (61.2% of electricity)
  • •Lowest renewable share among pilot countries (9.6%)
  • •Severe PM2.5 pollution (25.9 ug/m3, lowest in OECD)

Strengths

  • •Highest adaptation readiness (ND-GAIN 0.72, #1 among 6)
  • •Decoupling progress (GDP growth with emission decline)